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A grainy video flickers, but the message is chillingly clear. A man, identified as senior Lashkar-e-Taiba commander Saifullah Saif, stands before a crowd in Pakistan and makes a declaration that should send a cold spike of fear through every security office in New Delhi.
“Hafiz Saeed is not sitting idle,” he proclaims. “He is preparing to attack India through Bangladesh.”
He refers to Bangladesh by its pre-1971 name, “East Pakistan,” a deliberate and venomous choice of words. It’s a signal. A statement of intent. For decades, the eastern front has been relatively quiet, a settled ghost of a bloody war. Now, it seems the ghosts are stirring, and the board is being reset for a dangerous new game. Is this just the rhetoric of a radical, or are we witnessing the opening moves of a calculated strategy to encircle India?
The Diplomatic Dance and the Shadow Play
Let’s be clear: the pieces moving on the geopolitical chessboard are far too synchronized to be a coincidence. The fall of the Sheikh Hasina regime in August 2024 was the first tremor. Hasina, for all her faults, maintained a pragmatic and often friendly relationship with India, cracking down hard on the very extremist elements now re-emerging. Her ouster left a power vacuum, and it seems Islamabad is wasting no time filling it, a development that directly raises the question Will Bangladesh become a launchpad for anti-India activities?
The relationship between Pakistan and Bangladesh has been like a frozen river since the 1971 liberation war—a history of genocide and trauma keeping them locked in a cold, distant stasis. But now, the ice is cracking. Pakistan’s Navy chief just wrapped up a four-day visit to Dhaka. A Pakistani naval ship recently docked at the port of Chattogram, the first such visit in over 50 years. Imagine that for a moment. The symbolism is staggering. The very military that once occupied and brutalized the nation is now being welcomed back with diplomatic handshakes.
These aren’t just ceremonial port calls. They are probes. They are tests of a new reality. They are a way for Pakistan’s military and intelligence establishment to gauge the temperature in Dhaka, to see how far they can push, and to lay the groundwork for deeper cooperation. While diplomats exchange pleasantries in sterile government buildings, what kind of conversations are happening in the shadows? What deals are being struck that we won’t hear about until it’s too late?
The Foot Soldiers of a New War
While the generals and admirals smile for the cameras, the real work is happening on the ground, in the dusty, tense border districts. The strategy is classic, and it’s terrifyingly effective. You don’t need an army to destabilize a region; you just need a few charismatic ideologues, a pool of disenfranchised youth, and a steady supply of cash and weapons.
Enter Ibtisam Elahi Zaheer. A close aide to Hafiz Saeed—the mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks—Zaheer reportedly landed in Rajshahi, a city perilously close to the Indian border, on October 25. He wasn't there for a holiday. He was welcomed by members of a local Islamic institute with known radical ties and immediately began a tour, delivering provocative speeches to rally the faithful.
His message was a toxic cocktail of religious fervor and anti-secular hatred. “You must be ready to sacrifice yourself for the cause of Islam... ready to sacrifice your children as well,” he allegedly told his audiences. This isn't just a speech; it's a recruitment drive. He is planting seeds of jihad, promising a glorious struggle against the “secular forces” of India. How could a notorious terror financier's aide waltz into the country and hold rallies along the border? Was anyone watching, or was a blind eye deliberately turned?
This is the second prong of the attack. While the state-level actors build bridges, the non-state actors are digging tunnels. One offers diplomatic cover, the other provides plausible deniability. It’s a pincer movement, designed to squeeze India from both the west and the east, stretching its resources and creating a permanent, low-grade security crisis that bleeds it slowly.
More Than Just a Threat
This isn't just bluster from a few extremists in a grainy video. What we are seeing is the convergence of high-level statecraft and low-level terror operations. The diplomatic warming, the military visits, and the on-the-ground radicalization are not separate events. They are three parts of a single, coherent strategy. For years, India has focused on its volatile western border with Pakistan. The chilling possibility now is that a second front is being deliberately and methodically opened in the east. The question is no longer if it will happen, but how quickly New Delhi will recognize that the game has already begun.